By Andy Matthews

Assuming Dick Cheney means it when he says he won't seek the presidency in 2008, the race for the Republican nomination should be wide open. When a president's second term comes to an end, as will be the case with George W. Bush, the tendency is for the sitting vice-president to seek his party's spot on the ticket. But most indications are that Cheney plans to hang up his spurs.

So who does that leave? A lot of people, actually. Thus far, most speculation has centered on Arizona Sen. John McCain, who sought the party's nomination in 2000 but was bested by Bush, and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who earned high praise for his leadership in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks.

Both have plenty of appeal, and there's no doubt both would make strong general election candidates thanks to their popularity among moderates and independent voters. And both scored points with the party faithful by coming out strong for Bush in speeches at the 2004 GOP convention. But the rank and file that were so eager to shower them with adoration at the convention may prove to be road blocks on either man's path to the presidency.

Let's start with McCain. His conservative credentials are relatively strong, and for the faction of the GOP that cares most about national security issues, McCain would be an attractive option. But the Arizona maverick has a tendency to split with his party -- and this president -- when he sees an opportunity to win favor with the establishment media. This may make him a darling among moderates, but not so with the Republican voters he'll need to court in a primary.

A lot of people make a point of McCain's age (he'll be 72 come election day), but I think his willingness to break with the party a bit too often will be the real obstacle. And McCain jumped at the chance to criticize Christian conservatives during the 2000 season, which won't help him in 2008, either. Republicans were certainly appreciative of McCain's support for Bush in 2004. But they may prefer that kind of a role for McCain to one as the party's standard bearer.

Giuliani consistently polls high when GOP voters are asked who they'd like to see get the nomination. He's a tough-minded, no-nonsense kind of guy who would certainly have a lot of appeal among the economic- and defense-oriented voters in a GOP primary.

Unfortunately for Giuliani, his liberal views on social issues could be a major challenge to overcome. If the field doesn't produce a true social conservative, then Giuliani may be able to avoid some of those issues and emerge as the victor. But chances are somebody will step into that role and highlight Giuliani's liberal tendencies, which could doom his candidacy early. Giuliani is still basking in the glow of his 9/11 performance. But the further we get from that day, the harder it will be to turn that performance into political gain.

There's another reason why neither McCain nor Giuliani may be the horse to bet on in this race: Neither is a governor.

Historically, governorships have proven to be a much better launching pad to the presidency than the Senate (Giuliani is neither a governor nor a senator, so it remains to be seen how this historical test will apply to him). Still, history indicates that a successful stint as a governor can be a major plus in a run for the White House. And there should be no shortage of presidential wannabees coming from the gubernatorial ranks in 2008.

Their chances of winning (or perhaps even running) vary, but the list of governors to watch includes Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, George Pataki of New York, Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Bill Owens of Colorado and Jeb Bush of Florida.

The president's brother still seems like a long shot, and he has insisted he's not interesting in running. He'd be a strong candidate (and not a bad choice for conservatives), though Bush family fatigue would likely hurt him. If the rest of the field proves disappointing and the party is desperate for someone exciting, Bush might hear some pleas to run. But it's unlikely.

Romney will be an interesting one to watch. He's already receiving positive treatment from the conservative media, and the fact that he's a conservative who has demonstrated an ability to win in the bluest of blue states gives him a fine resume. Romney is a Mormon, and if he runs, everyone will be interested to see whether this hurts him among the evangelical base that's so crucial during Republican primaries. My guess is his success in Massachusetts and his unabashed conservatism on economic issues will be enough to outweigh that potential problem (he's no evangelical, but he's no Giuliani, either). Romney is the real deal and shouldn't be underestimated.

After Romney, Barbour may be the governor to watch in this race. It's uncertain whether he's going to seek the presidency, but he'd be an outstanding candidate, and I wouldn't be surprised if a Draft Haley movement were to begin. Pataki has little chance of winning the GOP nomination, Owens' stock has plummeted (to my great disappointment), and Huckabee and Pawlenty would need to rise from real obscurity to get the nomination. But with an open field, I wouldn't bet against them.

Despite the lack of success senators have had, there will be no shortage of them in the race for the '08 GOP nomination. In addition to McCain, Tennessee's Bill Frist, Virginia's George Allen, Nebraska's Chuck Hagel, Indiana's Richard Lugar, Kansas' Sam Brownback and Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum are all likely to take a look at the race. Minnesota's Norm Coleman has been mentioned in some circles as a possible candidate, but my guess is he's one to watch farther down the road, not this time around.

Frist, the Senate Majority Leader, would be a relatively strong candidate, and his prominent role in the judicial wars and the Terry Schiavo case have no doubt raised his profile (though whether that has been for better or for worse remains to be seen). Allen isn't as well known as Frist, but he's the kind of candidate I can see a lot of grassroots conservatives getting behind. The rest of the senators are long shots, though Santorum, if he can hold onto his Senate seat through the 2006 elections, might make an attractive vice-presidential pick.

Condi Rice? Not yet, though the Secretary of State's name is certain to come up in the rumor mill repeatedly over the next few years. My guess is she's likely to run for some other office first (either governor or senator in California) before taking a shot at the presidency.

There are a few others who might throw their hats in the ring (like former House Speaker Newt Gingrich), but at this point it seems there are six strong potential candidates who are really worth watching: McCain, Giuliani, Romney, Barbour, Frist and Allen. But of course, there's plenty of time left for that to change.

Andy Matthews is the editor of rightturnonly.com.