By Andy Matthews

There's still plenty of time left before the general election, but it's starting to look more and more as though President Bush will earn a second term.

After running neck and neck with John Kerry -- and often a little behind him -- for several months, the President has opened a clear lead over the Democratic challenger, by as much as double digits in some polls.

I've said all along that I expect Bush to win this election, though the shift in Bush's favor has been much more sudden and dramatic than I thought it would be. I figured each candidate would get a modest bounce from his convention, leaving things relatively even, and then Bush would gradually pull ahead over the final two months of the campaign. Instead, with under two months to go, Bush has surged into an impressive lead, and the election is now clearly his to lose.

So what happened?

For one thing, the Democratic Convention did nothing for Kerry, whereas the Republican Convention was a huge success. This can't be blamed entirely on Kerry, though the senator seldom helps his own cause when he opens his mouth. The fact is that today's Democratic Party simply can't match the starpower of the GOP.

John McCain is probably the most respected public figure in America, and Rudy Guiliani isn't far behind. And then there's Arnold Schwarzenneger. Barack Obama's speech at the Democratic Convention was a good one, but Obama is not an adequate answer to the Terminator.

Strategic errors have cost Kerry as well. I think Kerry made so much of his Vietnam service early on in his campaign in an attempt to neutralize Bush's strongest issue, national security. By establishing credibility on national security, Kerry could thus remove it as an issue and hammer Bush in areas where he is more vulnerable: health care, the budget deficit, etc.

Kerry's plan began to unravel when he was confronted with and tried, rather pathetically, to explain away his nuances on Iraq (with less than two months to go before the election, we still don't know where he stands). The Bush campaign has done an effective job of seizing on Kerry's endless contradictions and bringing them to light, raising serious doubts in voters' minds about whether Kerry has the capacity to lead.

Then the Swiftboat Veterans For Truth came along, undermining the very basis of Kerry's entire candidacy and forcing his campaign to shift into damage-control mode. Add to that the success Republicans have had in pointing out the litany of anti-defense votes Kerry has cast in the Senate, and it quickly became clear that Kerry couldn't go toe to toe with Bush on national security.

When Kerry's attempt to establish credibility on this issue failed, he should have cut his losses and moved on to safer turf. Instead, he has stubbornly stayed with this issue in an attempt to restore his reputation, only to be mocked every step of the way. Meanwhile, Bush's strongest issue remains front and center in the campaign. Kerry's reaction is certainly understandable -- he's been exposed, and it hurts. But unless Kerry gets over it, he'll end up arguing this issue right up until election day, sacrificing his campaign in order to prove a point no one will buy anyway.

It was this series of events -- the strong GOP Convention, the Swiftboat campaign and Kerry's stumbles -- all coming together at more or less the same time, that created the sudden jump in Bush's poll numbers.

None of this is to say the race is over. The debates loom, and they're likely Kerry's last opportunity to get back in this thing. But don't expect Kerry to help himself much during the debates. It isn't hard to imagine Kerry rambling for five minutes in response to a question about his endless flip-flops on Iraq, only to see Bush follow it up with a five-word zinger that highlights the crucial difference between the candidates. The contrast will be crystal clear, and the majority of Americans will prefer Bush's comprehensibility to Kerry's murkiness.

Finally, there's Kerry's personality problem. There's nothing about Kerry that endears him to the voters, even his own voters. Polls show a majority of his supporters are more anti-Bush than they are pro-Kerry. While Bush is able to connect with the average American voter, Kerry comes across as elitist and out of touch. It's a style that can get you elected in Massachusetts, but not nationwide.

Bush was certainly vulnerable this year, and the door was open for the Democrats to take back the White House. All that was left was to find their man.

They couldn't have made a worse choice.

Andy Matthews is the editor of rightturnonly.com.